RCMP 'Crime Gun' Story
Has a Major Numbers Problem

CTV News recently published an article about "crime guns" traced by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP). Careful analysis of the information provided shows the article is as much about spin as enlightenment.

Only 8% of firearms crime result in a firearm being recovered. Of those, only 20% of firearms seized by police are sent for tracing. Of the ones sent in for tracing, the sample in the CTV News article excluded most of the traces done in Ontario and Quebec. Of those, the definition of a "crime gun" is broad, and includes many non-violent crimes.

Ontario and Quebec have their own firearm tracing systems. information from those systems was not included in the article. Quebec and Ontario contain about 61% of Canada's population. Information from the most populated parts of Canada was not included. The sample for the article for CTV news was not representative of the Canadian population.

The way the numbers are used is confusing. For example: the article says the RCMP completed 6,951 firearm traces. Then it says 4,197 of those were identified as "crime guns". Of the 4,197 "crime guns" it says 2,814 had a known source. The implication is: of the 4197 "crime guns" 1,384 did not have a known source. …